Your pacing plan
Simulate race-day conditions
See how wind, heat or humidity would reshape this exact plan. Tap a preset below.
Your goal
Realistic finish in race-day conditions
Where +0:04 comes from
Course already in your goal pace Ā· wind: no effect
Course & plan at a glance
Goal pace
4:14/km
Tactic
Auto ā Positive split / fade
Steepest climb:
km 9ā10 (+0.8%)
Steepest descent:
km 40ā41 (-0.5%)
Auto uses the fatigue model most runners actually race with: steady effort to halfway, then a modeled slowdown.
Forecast
Plan forecast Ā· Oct 22, 2027, 12:00 PM
Overcast
11Ā°C
20%
chance of rain
3 km/h
E wind
76%
humidity
7Ā°C
dew point
Favourable
Race-day conditions (11Ā°C, dew point 7Ā°C) are close to ideal for your 2:59:00 goal: they add only about 0:04.
Pace by every kilometer
4:05/km ā 4:24/km
4:08/km ā 4:15/km
Hold back through the crowded, flat opening ā you bank nothing here, and that's the point.
4:05/km ā 4:22/km
A short rise gives way to a favorable downhill ā let the terrain carry you, don't push.
4:09/km ā 4:14/km
The flattest, most even stretch of the course ā settle in and save your legs for the fade ahead.
4:10/km ā 4:16/km
Pace drifts up almost imperceptibly as fatigue starts to outweigh the flat terrain.
4:16/km ā 4:25/km
Small grades and accumulated fatigue combine ā this slowdown is the plan working, not you blowing up.
4:15/km ā 4:23/km
One last downhill gift, then everything you have left to the finish line.
PACE and CUMULATIVE already include the race-day forecast: wind, heat and humidity are baked in. Switch to Advanced to see the course terrain and weather effects broken out.
| Segment note | Km | Pace | Cumulative (weather-adj.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4:13/km | 4:13 | |
| 2 | 4:15/km | 8:28 | |
| 3 | 4:08/km | 12:36 | |
| 4 | 4:13/km | 16:50 | |
| 5 | 4:15/km | 21:05 | |
| 6 | 4:13/km | 25:18 | |
| 7 | 4:08/km | 29:26 | |
| 8 | 4:15/km | 33:41 | |
| 9 | 4:14/km | 37:55 | |
| 10 | 4:22/km | 42:17 | |
| 11 | 4:05/km | 46:23 | |
| 12 | 4:09/km | 50:32 | |
| 13 | 4:06/km | 54:37 | |
| 14 | 4:07/km | 58:44 | |
| 15 | 4:14/km | 1:02:58 | |
| 16 | 4:12/km | 1:07:10 | |
| 17 | 4:12/km | 1:11:22 | |
| 18 | 4:09/km | 1:15:31 | |
| 19 | 4:11/km | 1:19:42 | |
| 20 | 4:10/km | 1:23:53 | |
| 21 | 4:10/km | 1:28:02 | |
| 22 | 4:10/km | 1:32:12 | |
| 23 | 4:15/km | 1:36:27 | |
| 24 | 4:13/km | 1:40:40 | |
| 25 | 4:11/km | 1:44:51 | |
| 26 | 4:10/km | 1:49:01 | |
| 27 | 4:15/km | 1:53:16 | |
| 28 | 4:13/km | 1:57:29 | |
| 29 | 4:13/km | 2:01:42 | |
| 30 | 4:15/km | 2:05:57 | |
| 31 | 4:14/km | 2:10:12 | |
| 32 | 4:15/km | 2:14:27 | |
| 33 | 4:16/km | 2:18:43 | |
| 34 | 4:18/km | 2:23:01 | |
| 35 | 4:16/km | 2:27:18 | |
| 36 | 4:19/km | 2:31:36 | |
| 37 | 4:18/km | 2:35:54 | |
| 38 | 4:25/km | 2:40:19 | |
| 39 | 4:18/km | 2:44:37 | |
| 40 | 4:25/km | 2:49:02 | |
| 41 | 4:15/km | 2:53:16 | |
| 42 | 4:20/km | 2:57:36 | |
| 43 | 4:23/km | 2:59:04 |
KM 0-9 is flat and crowded, and 4:13-4:15/km will feel conservative next to runners around you going out faster. Hold the number anyway: this segment is designed to bank nothing, and any early surplus gets paid back with interest after 30K.
The dip to 4:05-4:09/km through here comes from favorable grade, not from you finding extra gears. Treat it as a gift, not a new target pace, or you'll arrive at the 23-33K grind already in debt.
From KM 23 onward the model has you drifting from roughly 4:13 to 4:24/km as fatigue builds on essentially flat ground. That drift is the plan working as intended: fighting it by surging will only accelerate a real blowup before the 40K mark.